If "Expected Points Probability" is the probability of them converting that 4th and 1, well that alone does not warrant that decision. You seem to think you are some intellectual super hero; you're not. Now you are resorting to throwing out a vocabulary term as if it validates you and your view. I have never heard of the term "Expected Points Probability," and my not knowing it does not mean I would not understand the concept.
It has nothing to do with the conversion. Punting from your own 18 yard is expected to result in points for the Raiders because of the field position they are going to start with. Going for it there increases your chances of scoring (by punting your new expected points for that drive is 0). 4th and 1 is not a reckless go. You guys are just wrapped up in the field position because you can't understand the Raiders are expected to get points if you punt the ball.
It's not simple and its way over your head
Stick to high school football. It was stupid. I'm not going to go back and forth with some " know it all " over a stupid play call. Have a good day.
If "Expected Points Probability" is the probability of them converting that 4th and 1, well that alone does not warrant that decision. You seem to think you are some intellectual super hero; you're not. Now you are resorting to throwing out a vocabulary term as if it validates you and your view. I have never heard of the term "Expected Points Probability," and my not knowing it does not mean I would not understand the concept.
It has nothing to do with the conversion. Punting from your own 18 yard is expected to result in points for the Raiders because of the field position they are going to start with. Going for it there increases your chances of scoring (by punting your new expected points for that drive is 0). 4th and 1 is not a reckless go. You guys are just wrapped up in the field position because you can't understand the Raiders are expected to get points if you punt the ball.