CHII Training Roll Results. Surprise! They’re Terrible. 😞 * UPDATE (600 rolls) *
Once again, I’ll preface this by saying that 300 rolls isn’t a large enough sample size to draw any definitive conclusions, but we can make some general assumptions.
Also, I hate program specific training rolls and would recommend you avoid them like the plague.
Anyways, here’s the results:
Total Rolls: 300
Total Training Spent: 1,410,000
Total Cost: 4,371,000 coins (Got training at ~3.1)
84’s: 211(70.33%), Total training returned: 204,670, Total coins returned (assuming 2700 coins post-tax): 569,700.
89’s: 81(27%), Total training returned: 550,800, Total coins returned (assuming 18,000 coins post-tax): 1,458,000.
93’s: 8 (2.67%), Total training returned: 264,000, Total coins returned (assuming 100,000 coins post-tax): 800,000.
96’s: 0
Total training returned: 1,019,470 (72.30% ROI).
Total coins returned: 2,827,700 (64.69% ROI).
Training cost breakeven point: 2.005 (yikes).
Takeaways: Yes, the 96’s DO exist, and I’d imagine the pull rate on them is ~0.5%. Even with that…they’re still terrible.
Yes, I also got objectively unlucky. Even with average luck, I don’t think the training breakeven point eclipses 2.3.
Do not, do not, DO NOT touch these rolls. Stay far, far away. Literally run, like right now. F***ing terrible.
So, as I stated above, 300 rolls aren't really a significant enough sample size to draw any definitive conclusions. Plus, I'm a degenerate gambler, so I decided to do another 300 rolls. We'll take a look at these rolls individually, and then conflate the two data sets.
Bonus content. I got all of the required training for this roll set via opening Pro Gameday packs. While I wouldn't recommend it, they weren't terrible. I spent 5,346,000 million coins on packs and returned 1,433,000 training. That's a training rate of 3.73. While that's well above the going training rate, it's ok for straight opening packs. Additionally, opening packs is always more fun. I'd still recommend just working the AH to get your training. My best pull was 93 Cunningham. My highest overall pull was a 94 TOTW player (I forget who). My best pack (training wise) was ~72k, but I had a few <4k training packs in there as well. Anyway...
Results:
84’s: 204 (68%), Total training returned: 197,880, Total coins returned (assuming 2700 coins post-tax): 550,800.
89’s: 82 (27.33%), Total training returned: 557,600, Total coins returned (assuming 18,000 coins post-tax): 1,476,000.
93’s: 13 (4.33%), Total training returned: 429,000, Total coins returned (assuming 100,000 coins post-tax): 1,300,000.
96’s: 1 (0.33%, LTD Clowney), Total training returned (if Clowney QS'd for training): 110,000, Total coins returned assuming 630,000 coins post-tax): 630,000.
Total training returned: 1,294,480 (91.80% ROI). Removing the assumed training value for Clowney: 1,184,480(84.0%)
Total coins returned: 3,956,800 (90.05% ROI).
Training cost breakeven point: 2.806.
Objectively, this roll was much better.
Conflated Results:
84’s: 415 (69.16%), Total training returned: 402,550, Total coins returned (assuming 2700 coins post-tax): 1,120,500.
89’s: 163 (27.16%), Total training returned: 1,108,400, Total coins returned (assuming 18,000 coins post-tax): 2,934,000.
93’s: 21 (3.5%), Total training returned: 693,000, Total coins returned (assuming 100,000 coins post-tax): 2,100,000.
96’s: 1 (0.167%, LTD Clowney), Total training returned (if Clowney QS'd for training): 110,000, Total coins returned assuming 630,000 coins post-tax): 630,000.
Total training returned: 2,313,950 (82.05% ROI). Removing the assumed training value for Clowney: 2,203,950 (78.15%). Mean Training Return (w/o Clowney): 3,673.25
Total coins returned: 6,874,500 (78.63%% ROI). Mean coin return: 11,457.5
Training cost breakeven point: 2.437.
Takeaways:
We saw some positive regression in 93's and 96's (I'd hope so), but the rolls remained very consistent. I imagine the coded pull rates are:
84: 69.5%
89: 27%
93: 3%
96: 0.5%
At a 99% confidence interval (2.576 standard deviations from the mean), the expected return value (in training) is capped out at ~4600. So, you've got <1% chance (in volume) of breaking even or making profit from the roll when looking at it from a training-only perspective.
Once again, I’ll preface this by saying that 300 rolls isn’t a large enough sample size to draw any definitive conclusions, but we can make some general assumptions.
Also, I hate program specific training rolls and would recommend you avoid them like the plague.
Anyways, here’s the results:
Total Rolls: 300
Total Training Spent: 1,410,000
Total Cost: 4,371,000 coins (Got training at ~3.1)
84’s: 211(70.33%), Total training returned: 204,670, Total coins returned (assuming 2700 coins post-tax): 569,700.
89’s: 81(27%), Total training returned: 550,800, Total coins returned (assuming 18,000 coins post-tax): 1,458,000.
93’s: 8 (2.67%), Total training returned: 264,000, Total coins returned (assuming 100,000 coins post-tax): 800,000.
96’s: 0
Total training returned: 1,019,470 (72.30% ROI).
Total coins returned: 2,827,700 (64.69% ROI).
Training cost breakeven point: 2.005 (yikes).
Takeaways: Yes, the 96’s DO exist, and I’d imagine the pull rate on them is ~0.5%. Even with that…they’re still terrible.
Yes, I also got objectively unlucky. Even with average luck, I don’t think the training breakeven point eclipses 2.3.
Do not, do not, DO NOT touch these rolls. Stay far, far away. Literally run, like right now. F***ing terrible.
So, as I stated above, 300 rolls aren't really a significant enough sample size to draw any definitive conclusions. Plus, I'm a degenerate gambler, so I decided to do another 300 rolls. We'll take a look at these rolls individually, and then conflate the two data sets.
Bonus content. I got all of the required training for this roll set via opening Pro Gameday packs. While I wouldn't recommend it, they weren't terrible. I spent 5,346,000 million coins on packs and returned 1,433,000 training. That's a training rate of 3.73. While that's well above the going training rate, it's ok for straight opening packs. Additionally, opening packs is always more fun. I'd still recommend just working the AH to get your training. My best pull was 93 Cunningham. My highest overall pull was a 94 TOTW player (I forget who). My best pack (training wise) was ~72k, but I had a few <4k training packs in there as well. Anyway...
Results:
84’s: 204 (68%), Total training returned: 197,880, Total coins returned (assuming 2700 coins post-tax): 550,800.
89’s: 82 (27.33%), Total training returned: 557,600, Total coins returned (assuming 18,000 coins post-tax): 1,476,000.
93’s: 13 (4.33%), Total training returned: 429,000, Total coins returned (assuming 100,000 coins post-tax): 1,300,000.
96’s: 1 (0.33%, LTD Clowney), Total training returned (if Clowney QS'd for training): 110,000, Total coins returned assuming 630,000 coins post-tax): 630,000.
Total training returned: 1,294,480 (91.80% ROI). Removing the assumed training value for Clowney: 1,184,480(84.0%)
Total coins returned: 3,956,800 (90.05% ROI).
Training cost breakeven point: 2.806.
Objectively, this roll was much better.
Conflated Results:
84’s: 415 (69.16%), Total training returned: 402,550, Total coins returned (assuming 2700 coins post-tax): 1,120,500.
89’s: 163 (27.16%), Total training returned: 1,108,400, Total coins returned (assuming 18,000 coins post-tax): 2,934,000.
93’s: 21 (3.5%), Total training returned: 693,000, Total coins returned (assuming 100,000 coins post-tax): 2,100,000.
96’s: 1 (0.167%, LTD Clowney), Total training returned (if Clowney QS'd for training): 110,000, Total coins returned assuming 630,000 coins post-tax): 630,000.
Total training returned: 2,313,950 (82.05% ROI). Removing the assumed training value for Clowney: 2,203,950 (78.15%). Mean Training Return (w/o Clowney): 3,673.25
Total coins returned: 6,874,500 (78.63%% ROI). Mean coin return: 11,457.5
Training cost breakeven point: 2.437.
Takeaways:
We saw some positive regression in 93's and 96's (I'd hope so), but the rolls remained very consistent. I imagine the coded pull rates are:
At a 99% confidence interval (2.576 standard deviations from the mean), the expected return value (in training) is capped out at ~4600. So, you've got <1% chance (in volume) of breaking even or making profit from the roll when looking at it from a training-only perspective.